Is Pushing for Maximum Autumn Milk the Best Strategy?

With dry conditions persisting across much of the Waikato and Bay of Plenty and drought declared in Taranaki, dairy farmers are facing a critical decision: continue pushing for late-season milk or prioritise herd condition for next season?

Perrin Ag Senior Consultant Michael Booth says now is the time for farmers to take stock of their situation and consider whether chasing every last litre of milk is the right move.

“With no significant rain on the horizon, farmers need to assess whether it’s more beneficial to build cow condition for next season rather than squeeze out every last drop of milk,” says Mike. “And every farm will be different.”

 

Making the right call on feed and production

While strong milk prices and relatively low PKE prices may tempt some to keep every animal milking, the reality is that the window for cost-effective milk production is closing. Even if rain arrives soon, pasture recovery will take at least a month – meaning it could be late April before low-cost, pasture-based milk is achieved again. The priority should be keeping as many cows in milk as possible for when milk production becomes cost-effective again.

“Strategic culling, and feeding remaining animals better means they’re more likely to be able to milk into May rather than having to be dried off prematurely to meet body condition targets.”

 

Cull low producers to maximise returns

Culling low-producing cows can help stretch available feed supplies further. When more than 20% of the herd’s diet comes from supplements, the cost of keeping low producing culls quickly adds up.

“At that point, the cost of keeping a cull in the herd is essentially the same as feeding it a full supplement diet,” Mike explains. “A cow needs to produce at least 1.0 kg MS/cow/day just to cover itself, including direct feed costs and indirect costs such as labour, wear and tear on the tractor etc., so low-producing culls should be the first to go.”

Cull prices remain strong, but as more farmers look to offload animals, meat processors may come under pressure. Acting sooner rather than later could help farmers optimise returns and avoid processing delays.

 

Tailored advice for smarter decision-making

Autumn management decisions should be tailored to each farm’s unique circumstances, factoring in feed availability, cow condition, and expected winter growth.

“Early projections indicate a strong milk price for 2025/26,” says Mike. “Making the right call now will set farmers up for success next season.”